Wednesday, 21 January 2009
Tuesday, 20 January 2009
Peak Expectations
So last night I spoke to a group of environmental volunteers about Transition Towns and peak oil. And I have to say it was tougher than I expected. Having examined the science, read the books, seen the films and documentaries I have yet to hear a good argument against peak oil.
But of course not many others in the room had done the same amount of research. Rob Hopkins in his book on Transition Towns says that when first introduced to the idea people often go through the five stages of grief before acceptance - denial, anger, bargaining, depression and, eventually, acceptance. There was all of the above in the room last night.
In short the fear that we have reached peak oil is based on the findings of the Hirsch Report commissioned by the American government in 2005. Oil is a finite resource and we have used about half of the worlds resources (according to BP, Exxon-Mobil and others). This is where the problem lies - the oil that is left is the hardest to get and the most dirty and expensive to refine. Add to this a growing population and the global demand for higher living standards and greater amounts of food in an era of uncertain weather and you have a looming crisis. Some (about half) of the studies into this say that oil prices will start to rise sharply from about 2012.
No big problem. Unless you consider what we use oil for. Our whole way of life is based on the cheap power provided by oil. Electricity, transport, technology, plastics, fibres, drugs - even our GDP has gone up along exactly the same curve as oil availability.
As an environmentalist, the solution to the looming peak oil crisis and climate change is the same - develop ways in which communities can continue without over-reliance on fossil fuels. We need to become more co-sufficient. It has been done before, (war-time Britain, Cuba etc) and it can be done again.
That was my message last night.
Hopefully the denial, anger, bargaining and depression are just the first stages for my town. In the meantime I'll continue chopping wood, cycling, growing potatoes and feeding the chickens.
Anyone fancy some oil-free beetroot?
But of course not many others in the room had done the same amount of research. Rob Hopkins in his book on Transition Towns says that when first introduced to the idea people often go through the five stages of grief before acceptance - denial, anger, bargaining, depression and, eventually, acceptance. There was all of the above in the room last night.
In short the fear that we have reached peak oil is based on the findings of the Hirsch Report commissioned by the American government in 2005. Oil is a finite resource and we have used about half of the worlds resources (according to BP, Exxon-Mobil and others). This is where the problem lies - the oil that is left is the hardest to get and the most dirty and expensive to refine. Add to this a growing population and the global demand for higher living standards and greater amounts of food in an era of uncertain weather and you have a looming crisis. Some (about half) of the studies into this say that oil prices will start to rise sharply from about 2012.
No big problem. Unless you consider what we use oil for. Our whole way of life is based on the cheap power provided by oil. Electricity, transport, technology, plastics, fibres, drugs - even our GDP has gone up along exactly the same curve as oil availability.
As an environmentalist, the solution to the looming peak oil crisis and climate change is the same - develop ways in which communities can continue without over-reliance on fossil fuels. We need to become more co-sufficient. It has been done before, (war-time Britain, Cuba etc) and it can be done again.
That was my message last night.
Hopefully the denial, anger, bargaining and depression are just the first stages for my town. In the meantime I'll continue chopping wood, cycling, growing potatoes and feeding the chickens.
Anyone fancy some oil-free beetroot?
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